Harris, Democrats get polling bounceback with a new presidential nominee

WASHINGTON (TND) — Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign has gotten off to a strong start with record levels of fundraising, a bounceback in polling for Democrats and a surge in enthusiasm for Democratic voters as her election push gets going with less than 100 days until Election Day.

Democrats quickly coalesced around Harris in the hours after Biden announced he would step back from reelection and endorsed the vice president to take his place and she has repeatedly hit the campaign trail in a blitz to build on that momentum.

Polling in the immediate aftermath of Biden dropping out of the race and Harris effectively becoming the party’s nominee is limited to this point but early indications are showing a noticeable improvement in most metrics compared to the incumbent president.

A CNN poll conducted in the two days after Biden announced his decision to step back showed Harris narrowed the gap against Trump from a 6-point deficit to 3% nationwide, within the margin of error.

Another poll last week from New York Times/Sienna College also showed Harris narrowed Trump’s lead and that she had improved among multiple demographics that will be crucial to win the White House, with Harris doing better with Black, Hispanic and young voters than Biden.

The Wall Street Journal’s latest polling showed Harris is effectively tied with Trump and leading when including a third option of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and other third-party candidates. Trump led 49-to-47 in a head-to-head against Harris, but the vice president had a 1% lead when third parties were included.

Nearly every survey has found Harris is an improvement over where Biden stood as he left the race, which has reinvigorated Democrats that had been doubting whether they could beat Trump or win control of either chamber of Congress after Nov. 5.

The dynamics of the race have been upended with the sudden insertion of Harris as the Democratic nominee in a significant shift of momentum for Democrats. The next challenge for her will be making the momentum last for the remaining 99 days until Election Day.

“So much of politics is vibes and optics that the reason for the momentum is almost irrelevant to the momentum itself.,”said Alison Dagnes, a political science professor at Shippensburg University. “It's a very real vibe shift that’s pretty dramatic. It's not built on sand, it's built on reality. And the reality is, she's pretty good at campaigning.

“It’s enough to make it feel stickier than just a small tweak. It's a hard reset.”

Harris’ own favorability has also improved in the blitz of campaigning and public appearances since Biden stepped back as she quickly collected endorsements and support from all of the party’s most high-profile figures like former Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, congressional leaders Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries and Democratic governors across the country.

An ABC News/Ipsos poll released Sunday showed the vice president’s favorability has gone up to 43% with an unfavorability rating of 42%, a marked improvement from a week ago where she was underwater with voter approval.

Harris’ campaign is also only eight days old and has already raised $200 million, a massive sum in such a short timeframe that was driven by first-time contributors. Her campaign said Sunday that 66% of the $200 million came from first-time donors in the 2024 cycle and were made after Biden made the stunning decision to drop out of the race.

Added together, Harris has gotten off to about as good of a start as possible for a campaign being sprung into the race with just a few months before people start casting ballots. Pollsters and analysts expected the improvements in her favorability and the race with the removal of the historically unpopular president to a younger candidate to contrast with Trump.

Trump’s campaign predicted Harris would perform better the in the immediate aftermath of Harris announcing her candidacy in a memo last week.

“There is no question that Harris will get her bump earlier than the Democrat’s Convention. And that bump is likely to start showing itself over the next few days and will last a while until the race settles back down,” Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio said, adding that he believed she will still face blowback from voters with frustrations about the economy, the border and inflation.

While Harris has made improvements for the Democratic ticket’s position with voters, there are still issues she will have to face that favor Republicans. Inflation is still a source of frustration for voters that are also worried about the economy despite economic data showing strong growth and moderating prices. Voters have consistently said they trust Republicans more to handle both of those issues.

The border and immigration are also likely to be a challenge for Harris. While border crossings have slowed to historic lows in recent weeks after a changeup in the administration’s policy toward asylum, Republicans have been hammering the White House and Democratic policies on the border for months and voters have been more likely to trust the GOP to handle issues at the border.

Trump and other Republicans have already shifted their messaging and tone to try to connect Harris to Biden’s weaknesses on all those issues but the effectiveness of that approach remains to be seen. They have also lost the most effective line of attack in Biden’s advanced age and questions about his fitness to continue serving and are facing a much younger candidate, creating a challenge for them to set new contrasts and stakes for the race.

“The perception was Joe Biden is too old. Back before the debate, that was the perception. You weren’t going to be able to change that perception, even with one really good State of the Union address. Now that guy's gone, so what's the perception?” Dagnes said.

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